Hurricane forecasters express concern over NOAA job cuts impact

SAN ANTONIO — As the federal government continues with firings and layoffs, one specific cut could impact the weather forecasts you get at home.

It is NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration. They are key in shaping ocean, fisheries, climate, space and weather policies. It’s data is the invisible backbone of almost all weather forecasts, including hurricanes. 

“There were important cuts at the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center. Those are the folks who fly the P-3 aircraft and the G4 aircraft that does hurricane reconnaissance for us,” said James Franklin who is the former Chief of Forecast Operations at the National Hurricane Center, and recent job cuts have him concerned, especially after two flight directors and one engineer were reportedly let go. 

The data gathered by those pilots, typically every six hours when there is an active hurricane, and is fed into computer models to increase forecast accuracy. But the impact of their firings have yet to be seen. 

“If we miss four, five, or six hours of rapid intensification, that means the warnings may not be adequate for people along the coast. That’s what scares me,” Franklin says.

Right now the NHC’s five day forecast is as accurate as the three day forecast 15 years ago. With positions being slashed, the progress at risk. 

“We’ve been able to make more targeted warnings in there than there used to be. And that’s a value, I think, to everybody,” Franklin says. 

We reached out to NOAA. They couldn’t talk about internal personnel and management matters but did say, “NOAA remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research, and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation’s environmental and economic resilience. We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission.”

Franklin says hurricane forecasts could be impacted as early as this summer.